What Apple's iPhone press conference won't be about
Tomorrow, Friday the 16th of July, Apple will be holding a press conference abbot the iPhone 4. There has been much speculation about what will be announced, here are some of my responses to the speculation.
iPhone on Verizon
Every week another wild guess comes about that Apple will release a new Verizon iPhone in the coming weeks. But for me, the speculation is a nonstarter. The first reason that this issue is a nonstarter for me is the network that Verizon runs. Verizon uses CDMA technology to provide service to subscribers across the United States. While Verizon’s network is renowned for its stability across the country, CDMA has several disadvantages compared to GSM which is used in current iPhones which make it unlikely that a CDMA iPhone will be released. The first problem with CDMA is that, in its current form, cannot handle simultaneous data and voice connections. This limit severely lessens the capabilities of the iPhone, specifically features highlighted in existing iPhone commercials. Another limitation, although much less of an issue, is the fact that AT&T has a generally faster network across the country.
Another problem that I see with Apple launching a CDMA iPhone is that the technology is on the decline. Only two of the four major nationwide carriers in the United States, Sprint and Verizon, have CDMA networks. Both of them have committed to upgrading to their networks to new 4G technology. Sprint has already launched its 4G network in select cities and will continue to do so for the next few years. Verizon is a bit slower to start, but has committed to having sufficient 4G coverage in a few years. Even better, the 4G technology that Verizon is using is very similar to that which will be used by GSM carriers, meaning that the first 4G iPhone could potentially run on both networks. It just doesn’t make sense for Apple to commit time into developing an iPhone for Verizon’s current network.
Another reason that we will not see a Verizon iPhone tomorrow is that it has been less than 30 days since the iPhone 4 launched. Both Apple and AT&T have return policies that extend 30 days from purchase. If a Verizon phone was announced tomorrow, people could return their existing hardware and close their contracts with AT&T without facing any penalties, something which could cost Apple and AT&T thousands of dollars.
iPhone Hardware Problems Acknowledged
This is rather likely, as close to a sure thing as the new iPhone being announced at WWDC was. Apple knows that the longer it waits to formally announce their stance on the hardware problems, the more sales they possibly lose and the more it will cost to fix the problem if they choose to do so. What they say about the problem is more of a mystery though, will they admit that there is a serious problem or just continue with the story that problems are being blown out of proportion. The following speculation points are all related to the hardware problems experience by users, including the “Death Grip” and proximity sensor problems.
New iPhone Design

I think that Steve Jobs, or whoever leads the conference, will announce a new design for the phone. I think that the phone will be cosmetically indistinguishable from the current hardware that was released on June 24th. In the past week, shipments for the iPhone have slipped multiple weeks and there are unconfirmed reports that customers are able to exchange their iPhone 4 in-store for a new model. Both of these events seem to indicate that something has changed in iPhone manufacturing. One blog has even noted that there may have been some subtle difference in iPhones. From the photos posted, it is difficult to see any differences, however I have been unable to see any slot for the proximity sensor on my device.
White iPhone Release Date Announced
This is another theory that I think will likely happen tomorrow. When people were dismayed that they wouldn’t be able to buy a white iPhone on day one, Apple promised they would be available the second half of July; well, July 16th is the second half of July. Who knows, maybe the delay was so they could implement a new design.
Free Bumpers for All
Hours after users noticed that holding the iPhone in your left hand could cause it to drop calls, someone noticed that using a case, or Apple’s Bumpers, essentially stopped all the signal loss problems. This works because human skin is conductive and can cause problems when bridging the gap between iPhone 4’s antennas.I really don’t think that we can expect Apple’s answer to the problem to be free bumpers for all. My reasoning behind this is that it ruins the aesthetics of the device and, for a company like Apple, design is everything. Steve Jobs took so much pride in the work of beauty that is iPhone 4, I find it hard to believe that their answer would be to cover the device up.
Complete iPhone 4 Recall
Analysts have speculated since release whether Apple would have a total recall of the iPhone 4. I don’t think that this will happen. One reason is, people are still waiting to get their first iPhone 4. Apple is still shipping iPhones today and Apple couldn’t possibly have the reserve to replace every device it has sold so far. Instead, I think that Apple will issue either an extended warranty or optional recall. In both cases, users that are experiencing problems can take the iPhone to any Apple Store, or ship it in, and exchange it for a new model where they have fixed the problems. This is a similar approach to what Microsoft did with the Xbox 360 and its “Red Ring of Death” problem. This makes sense because some users, like myself, have had no problems with their iPhones.
Conclusion
All of the above is wild speculation about speculation. I have no insider knowledge, or any information that can’t be gleamed from reading blogs and using common sense. What do I think will happen tomorrow? I think that the presenter, Steve Jobs or otherwise, will hold a demonstration using several top-selling smart phones that shows they all suffer from signal loss when held a specific way. After the comparison, or even during, he will talk about the 4.01 software update that was released today which Apple claims will fix most of the issues, despite reports otherwise. After this demo, he will talk about how engineers have fixed the problem and made the phone even better. He will state that the problem isn’t widespread or big enough to justify a recall, but if customers wish, they may exchange their device and all future purchasers will have the fixed device. I’m interested to see what will happen at tomorrows conference as I have not had a single problem with my iPhone and nobody I know personally has either, I will follow this post with a full report tomorrow after the press conference.
Addendums:
Apple Insider reports that 4.01 was a quick patch fix and that, although it lessened the problem, a more robust software update is in the works.